Title: Room to grow: change in yield gaps over time.
Abstract: Sustainable intensification is widely promoted as an effective strategy for increasing food production while limiting impact on the environment. Yield gaps - the difference between current yields and realistically attainable yields – are a useful framework for analyzing the global agricultural system and identifying areas and methods for targeting interventions. Past studies of yield gaps have been static, leaving unanswered the question ‘are yield gaps closing? For which crops and regions?’ Here, we use recently developed high-resolution datasets of crop yields to assess yield gaps at a global scale over the time period 1975-2010 and determine temporal and regional patterns in yield gaps. We find that yield gaps are consistent at the global scale, but that there is substantial regional variation; current yields and attainable yields are both growing at a commensurate rate, but not in the same regions, and with different profiles for different crops. Yield gaps are increasing for maize and soybean, while stasis in yield gaps for wheat and rice indicates decreasing potential for production growth under current agronomic development regimes.
Biography
James Gerber is the co-director and lead scientist of the Global Landscapes Initiative at the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment. His research develops solutions for improving global food security while minimizing agriculture’s impact on earth’s ecosystems. He leads the team’s efforts to collect, map, and analyze global-scale data on agricultural practices and the evolving vulnerability of the world’s food supply.