Title: Modeling Natural Catastrophes: Is it a Complete Disaster?
Abstract:
Catastrophe modeling (also known as cat modeling) is the process of using computer-assisted calculations to estimate the losses that could be sustained due to a catastrophic event such as a hurricane or earthquake. Cat modeling is especially applicable to analyzing risks in the insurance industry and is at the confluence of statistics, engineering, meteorology, seismology and other sciences.
Being low frequency high severity phenomenon (thus very little historical data), modeling losses from catastrophes are quite challenging, highly uncertain and important. In the following three sessions we will get an overview of the present state of catastrophe modeling and what lies ahead. We will look at perils such as hurricanes, wildfires, pandemic flus and cyber-attacks to explain the methodologies.
Part 1: History and Present State of Statistical/Physical Modeling – Nature’s Curveballs
Part 2: Insurance of Catastrophe Exposed Risk - Art of Using Noisy Predictions
Part 3: Man, Nature and Climate Change – Present Imperfect, Future Tense
Biography
Bhaskar Chattaraj joined TigerRisk Partners in 2009 and leads the Modeling and R&D team. He began his career in the insurance industry in 1998 at AIR Worldwide Corporation, where he was the manager of the Core Products Quality Group. In that position he was responsible for statistical analysis and testing of all catastrophe models and underlying industry exposures. Additionally, Bhaskar played an integral role in the development of a proprietary catastrophe software engine and was involved in special client risk management projects such as providing analytical expertise in the design of catastrophe bonds.
Prior to joining TigerRisk, Bhaskar was the Assistant Vice President in the Analytics department at John B. Collins Associates, Inc. In that capacity he was responsible for building analytical tools for catastrophe risk analysis, creating tools and processes for optimizing portfolios of catastrophe-prone exposures including depopulations from Citizens Property Insurance Corporation in Florida, reinsurance and ILW pricing, and creating growth and start-up scenarios for several companies.
Bhaskar earned both a Bachelor's degree and Master's degree in Statistics from Indian Statistical Institute and a Master's degree in Economics from Boston University. He also earned a Graduate Certificate in Data Mining and Applications from Stanford University.
